July 2021: The BakerAvenue Prudence Indicator
"The question is not what you look at - but how you look and whether you see."
- Henry David Thoreau
Shifting Narratives
The reflation narrative, born out of reopening economies and historic stimulus, helped power shares of economically sensitive companies higher after nearly a decade of underperformance. However, over the past several weeks, pandemic beneficiaries have outperformed reopening trades. Growth stocks have trounced value stocks, commodities have lagged, and Treasury yields, which peaked this year at the end of the first quarter at 1.8% (10yr), have moved steadily downward toward 1.3%.