BAPI

BakerAvenue Prudence Indicator Says... 

Long-term: Positive   |   Short-term: Neutral

Thinking Through 2022

“It is better to sleep on things beforehand than lie awake about them afterwards.”

–Baltasar Gracian

Markets have become choppier with the Federal Reserve turning hawkish just when the Omicron variant has revived growth scares. While the last few weeks are a reminder that uncertainty remains elevated, we continue to see more positives than negatives in our long-term outlook. A new year is upon us, and we enter it with guarded optimism. What should investors monitor as we consider close out the year and look to 2022?

BakerAvenue Prudence Indicator Says... 

Long-term: Positive   |   Short-term: Neutral

Channeling Goldilocks

“It is always the simple that produces the marvelous.”

– Amelia Edith Huddleston Barr

The market narrative has quickly shifted from inflation-based (or stagflation-based) agitation to something more akin to a goldilocks scenario. Patient central banks have pushed back on the recent move higher in interest rates, while economic data is proving resilient and Q3 earnings keep coming in strong. The ‘not too hot (policy), not too cold (growth)’ backdrop continues to present a supportive market backdrop. What should investors watch for as we move into the final months of the year? 

BakerAvenue Prudence Indicator Says... 

Long-term: Positive   |   Short-term: Neutral

Some Tricks, Some Treats

“Wisdom lies neither in fixity nor in change, but in the dialectic between the two.” – Octavio Paz

Volatility has picked up as the debate surrounding fiscal and monetary policy, coupled with stubborn supply chain constraints, raises investor anxiety. Markets were lower in September, with the S&P 500 logging its first decline since January and its worst month in a year. A recovering global economy, together with improving Covid trends, offers a more optimistic outlook. What are the potential tricks, and treats, investors should watch out for as we move deeper into the fall? 

BakerAvenue Prudence Indicator Says... 

Long-term: Positive   |   Short-term: Neutral

The Upcoming Policy Push

"Though we see the same world, we see it through different eyes.” – Virginia Woolf

As negotiations over the largest tax increase in fifty years and the largest spending package in a hundred years heat up, there is little doubt we are entering the primetime for policy actions. Toss in a debt ceiling debate and Fed Chairman election, and the headlines coming out of Washington this Fall will be important to monitor. August closed out seven months of positive returns (S&P 500) with several indices reaching all-time highs. What should investors expect as the legislative calendar heats up?

All-Time Highs, Meet the Dog Days of Summer

"There are always flowers for those who want to see them." - Henri Matisse

July closed out six months of positive returns (S&P 500) with several indices reaching all-time highs. Despite the strength, headlines related to COVID variants, China regulations and peak growth pressured the reflation narrative and made for some volatile asset class moves. What should investors expect as we move through the dog days of summer?  

"The question is not what you look at - but how you look and whether you see."
- Henry David Thoreau

Shifting Narratives
The reflation narrative, born out of reopening economies and historic stimulus, helped power shares of economically sensitive companies higher after nearly a decade of underperformance. However, over the past several weeks, pandemic beneficiaries have outperformed reopening trades. Growth stocks have trounced value stocks, commodities have lagged, and Treasury yields, which peaked this year at the end of the first quarter at 1.8% (10yr), have moved steadily downward toward 1.3%.