BAPI

BakerAvenue Prudence Indicator Says... 

Long-term: Positive  |   Short-term: Neutral

Contagion Cogitation

"People generally see what they look for, and hear what they listen for."
- Harper Lee

BakerAvenue Prudence Indicator Says... 

Long-term: Positive  |   Short-term: Neutral

Rescheduling That Retrenchment

“Storms make the oak grow deeper roots.”

– George Herbert

BakerAvenue Prudence Indicator Says... 

Long-term: Neutral   |   Short-term: Neutral

Evolving Influence: Less Macro, More Micro

“Better a little which is well done, than a great deal imperfectly.”

– Plato

BakerAvenue Prudence Indicator Says... 

Long-term: Neutral   |   Short-term: Neutral

Positioning Amidst the Juxtapositions

“There will come a time when you believe everything is finished; that will be the beginning.”

– Louis L'Amour

BakerAvenue Prudence Indicator Says... 

Long-term: Neutral   |   Short-term: Neutral

Less Need for Tightening Speed?

“The beginning is the most important part of the work.”

– Plato

BakerAvenue Prudence Indicator Says... 

Long-term: Neutral   |   Short-term: Neutral

Seasonal Stabilization?

“The question is not what you look at - but how you look and whether you see.”

– Henry David Thoreau

BakerAvenue Prudence Indicator Says... 

Long-term: Neutral   |   Short-term: Neutral

The Death of TINA?

“It's worth remembering that it is often the small steps, not the giant leaps, that bring about the most lasting change.”

– Queen Elizabeth II

For the longest time, lower interest rates meant that, for most investors, There Is No Alternative (TINA) to stocks and like assets to meet long-term financial objectives. With yields backing up across the curve, risk-free rates have moved from an afterthought to a consideration and the bar for sustained outperformance has been set higher. While the new rate backdrop will make the recovery road bumpy, we do not think it is enough to short circuit growth.

BakerAvenue Prudence Indicator Says... 

Long-term: Neutral   |   Short-term: Neutral

A Lesson in Positioning

“You know more than you think you know, just as you know less than you want to know.”

– Oscar Wilde

The tricky summer for investors continues with July posting the best return in eighteen months. While there was some encouraging traction behind the peak inflation and Fed tightening narratives, as well as better than expected earnings, we suspect depressed sentiment and positioning may have played the biggest role. Macro uncertainty is still elevated, but we are encouraged by the recent progress. Nevertheless, the back half of the year will have plenty in store for investors. As always, we defer to our technical, fundamental, and macro disciplines to assess the risks and guide our outlook.

BakerAvenue Prudence Indicator Says... 

Long-term: Neutral   |   Short-term: Neutral

Feeling the Heat

“The noblest pleasure is the joy of understanding.”

– Leonardo Da Vinci

A tricky summer for the markets is underway. “Peak inflation” continues to be elusive, growth is slowing and macro ambiguities abound. While asset prices and depressed investor sentiment reflect the uncertainty, the ever-changing narratives and whipsaw patterns are playing with investors’ nerves. As always, we defer to our technical, fundamental, and macro disciplines to assess the risks and guide our outlook.

BakerAvenue Prudence Indicator Says... 

Long-term: Neutral   |   Short-term: Neutral

Finding Equilibrium

“The present is the ever-moving shadow that divides yesterday from tomorrow. In that lies hope.”

– Frank Lloyd Wright

Markets are trying to strike a fragile balance between hope that inflation is peaking and fear of a recession. Growth is slowing just as financial conditions tighten, but we suspect prolonged recessionary conditions can be avoided. Volatility has remained elevated, and investors are sure to remain on edge as the path to a soft landing is narrow. As always, we will defer to our technical, fundamental and macro disciplines to assess the risks and guide our outlook.